IATA forecasts annual airline industry growth of 3.3%

Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), reported that “the airline industry’s progress and recovery continued strongly during 2023 and we achieved just over 94% of where we were in 2019; but with further development in the domestic markets of almost 4% ahead of where we were in 2019; conversely the international markets are lagging at just over 88%.”

He stated that in the Asia-Pacific region, the situation was a little less than that, overall 86% of where the area was in 2019.

Solid performance in the region’s domestic markets exceeded 2%, but international travel in the region was still lagging at about 73% of 2019. Importantly, there was a strong recovery throughout the year, rising from around 57% in January to nearly 83% in December.

Industria Aérea Avión“Looking ahead, IATA estimates that over the next 20 years, the industry will grow by approximately 3.3% annually. That’s significantly less than the growth we witnessed between 2010 and 2019. But I think it reflects some of the challenges that we, as an industry, face and will face in the future and are likely to continue for a few more years. The delay and delivery of new aircraft, engine-related issues, labor shortages in some parts of the world and, significantly, the cost impact of our transition to net zero in 2050,” he said.

Net Zero

Regarding the net zero target, he said there will be a cost associated with the transition to net zero. And, “ultimately, these costs will have to be reflected in the ticket prices we charge our customers, which will have a decelerating effect on the level of growth the industry anticipates in the future.”

“I am now pleased to say that this region is likely to lead the markets with growth of around 4.5% per annum,” he added.

“We also analyzed the major route groups. The top 20 route groups account for about 95% of all international travel. I’m not going to go through them all, just to reflect that in 2019, pre-pandemic, the Asia-Pacific region was second at 13.3%. The largest international market was Western Europe. International travel within Europe accounted for 18%, and from Europe to North America accounted for 11.4%,” Walsh said.

By 2023 there was a lagging recovery in Asia-Pacific, international travel within the Asia-Pacific region had fallen to 9.7%.

“So this is a great opportunity to continue the market recovery here and I’m excited about how things will be in the coming years,” he added.

Source: Arecoa.com

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